Most likely bowl destinations
November 12th, 2007, 1:27 pm · Post a Comment · posted by Dan Zeiger
With two games remaining it its season, Arizona State’s bowl possibilities are likely limited to three locations: the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif., Holiday Bowl in San Diego and Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas.
ROSE: This is where ASU will likely go if it wins its final two games, either as the Pac-10 champion (if Oregon loses one of its final three contests) or an at-large selection (if the Ducks qualify for the Bowl Championship Series title game).
If the Sun Devils lose against Southern California on Thanksgiving night, the Trojans get the inside track to Pasadena if Oregon goes to New Orleans. USC will be favored to win its regular-season finale against UCLA.
HOLIDAY: If Oregon goes to the BCS title game and USC to the Rose Bowl, the Sun Devils would probably head here. San Diego is the likely spot if the Ducks lose once and ASU beats USC but loses the Territorial Cup game against Arizona.
The Sun Devils could make the Holiday by losing to USC and beating Arizona if the Trojans stumble against UCLA. Under that scenario, a loss to the Bruins might send the Trojans tumbling from the BCS to the Sun Bowl.
SUN: If Oregon loses once and ASU falls to USC, the Pac-10 could still get two teams in the BCS, with the Ducks to the Rose and Trojans to the Fiesta. If the conference does not get two BCS schools, USC (assuming it beats UCLA) likely goes to the Holiday, with the Sun Devils El Paso-bound.
There is also the slight chance that ASU and Oregon State could finish in a tie for third place in the conference. If Oregon and USC go to BCS games, the Holiday would choose between the Sun Devils and Beavers. Although ASU won the regular-season matchup between the schools, the Holiday could opt to take Oregon State, which has never played in San Diego and travels well.
The Fiesta Bowl? That game remains in play, and the Sun Devils could head to Glendale under the Oregon-loses-once-and-UA-beats-ASU scenario. But the BCS standings math would have to work out just right.
Whew! Got all that?
The Sun Devils are eighth in the current BCS standings. Oregon is second, USC 11th. No more than two schools from a conference can play in the five BCS games.